Dealer Bust Cards or NOT

Dealer Bust Cards or NOT?

I have heard that sometimes while playing blackjack, the dealer's upcard will be a BUST card, meaning the dealer is MORE likely to bust than get a good hand.

For example, if you are dealt "14" and the dealer is showing a "6" face up, people suggest that you stand because the dealer is LIKELY to bust.

But from a PURE mathematical point, the dealer is NOT likely to bust in this instance. With a 6 showing up, he will bust (42%) of the time. That means he will beat your "14" total over HALF of the time.

Even if the dealer showed a "2" face up, he is STILL MORE likely NOT to bust than bust. He will bust only (35%) of the time with a up 2 face card. So he will beat you over 64% of the time if you stand with a (14)

Wouldn't Surrendering be the BEST option (from a mathematical point of view)

Do bust cards REALLY exist?

Other Answers:

First of all, surrender is NOT a house bet, it is a player favorable bet. If it were a house bet, then it would be offered everywhere! lol.

Here is a link to rule variations for blackjack: http://www.thedoverpro.com/blackjack/bla...

True the dealer is around 42%, (depending on the rules) and is less likely to bust than to not bust, after all, there is no guarantee of a face card down, lol.

However, you are also likely to bust, and when you combine the two percentages, your expected value return for hitting decreases. The EV of standing with 14 against a dealer 6 is about -.15, if you hit it, the EV is -.30, so you are making the best of a bad situation by standing.

And no, don't surrender the hand in this case. It gets you back half your bet, but really, you should only surrender your 16 against an ace or a ten, sometimes a nine, and only surrender your 15 against an ace.

Bust cards do exist, but the label is misleading, there obviously are no guaranteed bust cards. There are only cards with higher probabilities of busting, just as there are hands with higher probabilities of winning.

Good luck, great question.